Matthew Page
So what's the outlook for the Guinness Global Innovators Fund in 2025? Clearly, over the last two years, we've seen very strong returns from a few very large companies. And pleasingly, we have owned 6 of the 7, magnificent 7 in the portfolio over the last few years. And many of those we've owned for much, much longer, indeed we've owned NVIDIA going back over 20 years now.
Thankfully, we run a concentrated equally weighted portfolio, and that has meant that we have been locking in gains from these positions over the last couple of years and derisking and banking those profits as we go. There are market concerns amongst some people that perhaps the valuations of some of these companies have got excessively high. Now the one company we don't own in in the Magnificent 7 would be Tesla. So if we take that company aside and look at the other 6, then actually we're not too concerned about valuations per say. Indeed, if we look at what's happened over the last four years or so, actually the valuations of companies like Nvidia and Alphabet have actually come down and despite incredibly strong earnings growth. And actually for all the others, they've essentially gone sideways despite some good earnings growth coming through over that period.
So I think the thing that we have to be aware and ready for is any change in inflection in terms of the pace of that earnings growth through 2025. And I think at the moment we feel fairly satisfied that the AI growth theme that is one of the 9 themes that we invest in, in the Global Innovators Fund is an area that is going to see continued growth in 2025. But we will of course be looking carefully for any change in inflection point in that.
